2008 NFL Preview: NFC South

New Orleans Saints

Remember in 2006 when the Saints were suprisingly good and looked like they might have the league by the sack in 2007?

Then remember this time last year when a lot of experts picked the Saints to go 12-4 or so and be a legit contender in the NFC?

They had a horrible start in 2007. 0-4 is hard to come back from. It is sort of like the way the Tigers started in 2008. You can’t start the season on a huge losing skid and expect things will balance out. Sometimes it doesn’t work. Sometimes by the time guys right themselves, it is too late. And some guys never right themselves (looking at you Dontrelle).

It wasn’t like Drew Brees was horrible last season. He actually had a career best completion percentage, passign yard and touchdowns.

Marques Colston had a great sophomore year. The guy is star receiver.

The problem on offense seemed to be running the ball, compunded by injuries.

Deuce McAllister, who is their pounder, was out for the season after week 3. Reggie Bush was hurt on and off and managed to have more fumbles than touchdowns.

The Saints just had some trouble running the ball.

I like the addition of Jeremy Shockey this season. Even though I think Shockey is a crybaby who is constantly injured. Still, another target for Brees. I think the Saints should be fine on offense in 2008.

On defense, their defensive line isn’t winning any awards in 2008. This is a spot that could use some attention.

They added Johnathan Vilma to the linebackers. Vilma was hurt last season but has been pretty consistent throughout his short career. He should help them with their tackling woes.

The secondary is solid. I like Mike McKenzie as the veteran leader there. Josh Bullocks, Jason David and Roman Harper are all guys with potential.

The defense isn’t scary good or anything, but it is definitely solid.

In all honesty, it is hard to hold the 2007 season against this team. They are still young and still building. I think last year’s 7-9 was a speed bump they will forget about in 2008 (especially in a fairly weak division).

My definitive prediction is a 10-6 record for the Saints in 2008.

Carolina Panthers

One thing that surprised me before the 2007 season was how much people were hating on Jake Delhomme.

Yeah, I’m inclined to agree that he isn’t Joe Montana.

But Delhomme played 3 consistent seasons, had kind of bad year in 2006 and then all of the sudden everyone talked about him as if he was Matt Leinart in 2007.

Well Delhomme didn’t have much time to prove anyone wrong because he was knocked out for the season after 3 games. Just take a look at his stats through those 3 games. 8 TDs, 1 INT, 624 yards, 64% completion percentage. The guy was on sort of a tear.

The Panthers kind of floundered after that. We saw some David Carr, some Vinny Testaverde and a whole lot of struggles.

But it wasn’t just the lack of Delhomme that killed the offense. The Panthers were platooning DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster. Neither of them really seemed all that great. This could also be a porduct of shitty blocking up front.

In 2008, the Panthers will probably use DeAngelo Williams with rookie Jonathan Stewart from Oregon. Stewart is supposed to be good. And he better be if the Panthers want any hope of succeeding in 2008.

The wide receivers are Steve Smith, whose numbers have shrunk 3 years straight (all though last year could be attributed to the fact that he had a series of backups throwing him the ball), the 35 year old Mushin Muhammad, DJ Hackett (who was injured in Seattle last season and brought in to spice things up) and my personal favorite Dwayne Jarrett, who is young and the perfect size (6′ 4″ 219 lbs.) to be a top wide receiver in the NFL one day. Even though Hackett is hurt right now and Muhammad is old, I still like this receiving crew. I just feel like they have enough variety, experience and enough to prove to be solid all year.

On defense, I really like Chris Harris who is tough and makes people fumble the ball a lot. They also have Ken Lucasat cornerback who has declined in spite of not even being that old. The secondary should be average. Not bad. But not great.

The linebackers feature Jon Beason who was a rookie and sort of a monster in 2007 and Thomas Davis who is young and talented.

The defensive line has Julius Peppers who really wasn’t himself at all in 2007. If he comes back to form, combined with Damione Lewis, the Panthers should have a solid pass rush.

The thing is, the Panthers were VERY middle of the road on defense in 2007. They should have been better. They should be better this year. Slightly better.

And so it is hard to predict. So many uncertainties here.

My definitive prediction is a 7-9 record for the Panthers in 2008.

 

Atlanta Falcons

What can you even say about a team whose best offensive hope to carry them is a guy that wasn’t even there last season?

The Falcons are kind of screwed.

And you what, it isn’t just because of the Michael Vick situation. It was everything before and during his tenure there.

The Atlanta Falcons never had a chance to win a Superbowl with Vick (not with who was around him anyway) so there chances without him?

Well, Michael Turner proved himself in San Diego. He always looked like a great runner in his own right. And maybe if the offensive line (one of the bottom 5 to 7 in the NFL) can provide him the occasional blocking he’ll need, Turner might be able to pick up some decent yardage as the only serious offensive weapon on the team.

The wide receivers? Well, let’s just play a quick game of “Password”:

Me: “Michael Jenkins, Brian Finneran, Roddy White“

You: Guys I’ve never heard of.

Me: No.

You: Ummm…Guys who can’t catch a football.

Me: No.

You: Ummm…What is the worst receiving crew in the NFL?

Me: This isn’t Jeopardy, and no.

You: Awful?

Me: You’ve won a new microwave!!!

Ok, so Roddy White had a good season last year. He’s got potential. But Michael Jenkins and Brian Finneran do not inspire confidence. It might just be because the Falcons have never really had a quarterback who could hit a receiver on the hands beyond 10 yards in the last decade. In fact, Chris Chandler is the last guy i remember playing for the Falcons and possessing this skill. So…there’s that.

Either way, an offense run by Matt Ryan, who is a rookie, with a bad offensive line? Let’s just hope Ryan’s spleen stays in tact.

Unless Matt Ryan turns into a complete genius overnight and develops faster than any quarterback in the last 15 years, it will be a long season for the Falcons.

If they spend the next two off seasons improving the offensive line and defense, they should be a competitive team by 2010 (If Matt Ryan is decent and Michael Turner and/or Jerious Norwood become reliable backs).

On Defense, the Falcons have a pretty young secondary (Lawyer Milloy aside). Chris Houston had a good rookie campaign last season. if he steps up a little more this season, there is reason to believe he could be a true bright spot in the secondary this year and beyond.

Erik Coleman might have been a shrewd addition this off season. Coleman was shitty last season. Just plain shitty on the New York Jets, but he is still young as well (26) and his stats in 2004-2006 were very promising. The Falcons are hoping 2007 was just an off year.

Lawyer Milloy is older now and obviously his production has dipped a little the last year. But he still hits hard at Safety.

The linebackers are mixed. Keith Brooking is a veteran who is still tough. He still plays hard every game. You have to admire Brooking. Michael Boleyis going into his 4th season, and has been consistently great as a young linebacker. Boley has truly improved every season. Last year he deflected 7 passes, had 109 tackles, 3 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. He is definitely the Falcons defensive MVP in my book.

The defensive line is the real issue on this team. They made acquired Grady Jackson to try to firm it up with another veteran, but I don’t see him having a major impact. John Abraham is of course a complete monster. When he is healthy. He’s averaged 12 games a season over his career but last year notched 10 sacks and 4 forced fumbles.

The rest of the defensive line is either young or not so great.

With the offensive adjustments they will have go through, combined with the fact that they still need to solidify their offensive and defensive lines,I think it will be more of the same from the Falcons this season.

My definitive prediction is a 3-13 record for the Falcons in 2008.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Joey Galloway has been drinking from the fountain of youth for far too long now.

Galloway’s catches, yardage and touchdown numbers have decreased each of the last three seasons.

Still, in spite of his 36 years of age and 13 seasons of wear and tear, Galloway has still had 3 1,000+ yard seasons in a row.

Shit, when I’m 36, I hope I can walk 1,000 yards 3 years in a row…

Every season experts predict that it will be the season he slows down substantially. I would like to do the same (and pretend I’m an expert) but realize that he might still get 1,000 yards (inexplicably) in 2008.

The Bucs other WRs? The old and always serviceable but never really good or great Ike Hilliard and the 4 year veteran Michael Clayton who still has yet to recapture the spark of his rookie season.

But I guess the wide receivers in Tampa Bay are only as important as their quarterback…

Which surely must be someone new this season…

No? It’s still Jeff Garcia?

Garcia is 38. played in 13 games last season and threw 13 TDs to 4 INTs, 2440 yards had the highest completion percentage of his career (63.9) and had a QB Rating of 94.6.Lifetime his TD to INT ratio is 149 to 77. He’s a +72. I hope you are paying attention Jon Kitna.

In all honesty, Garcia gets a lot of grief from some people. In reality, he was really good in San Francisco from 2000 to 2002. He had a down year in 2003, the Ninersdecided to move on, he went to the newly re-establish Browns and had trouble (go figure) and was given “backup status” withthe Lions and and Eagles. His numbers withthe Eagles in 2006? Not bad at all. His numbers last season? Pretty damn good. It seems like Garcia was sort of given a short leash throughout his career (like most quarterbacks are these days) and was harshly punished for one bad season wi a not very good team and then another bad season with an awful team.

The Bucs offensive line is middle of the road. They added Jeff Faine at Center and he should definitely help a little, but I still think they figure to be a run first offense. Especially since behind Garcia at quarterback, they have a motley crew of Luke McCown, John Elway’s Failed replacement and the busted spleen guy who might get cut or might be traded because, you know,John Gruden thinks he’s a pussy.

Earnest Grahamlooked good last season at half back. He was a little short on the yardage, but knows how to bang it into the end zone. And to help them with the yardage, the Bucs added Warrick Dunn who probably wants to finish his career in Tampa, where he started it.

It is sort of unfortunate that the Buccaneers did not spend the money to add to the wide receivers or build the offensive line more substantially for this season because their defense is monstrous.

Gaines Adamswas a ferocious rookie. Jovan Haye took a big step up last season. Chris Hovan is solid. And Kevin Carterwill still break you in half. Their defensive line might be the best in the NFL.

At linebacker, the Bucs are also solid. Derrick Brooks is a veteran who won’t slow down. Barrett Ruud is a young guy who stepped up big last year and Cato Junewas new to the team last season and had the worst year of his career. If he is anything like he was in 2004-2006 this season he will complete an excellent trio.

With a front 7 like that it almost doesn’t matter that the Bucs have a great secondary with Ronde Barber, Tanard Jackson, Phillip Buchanon and the always fierce Jermaine Phillips.

My definitive prediction is an 11-5 record for the Buccaneers in 2008.

Kevin O’Connell Should Be The Patriots Back Up Quarterback.

While flipping back and fourth between the DNC and the Patriots @ New York for the preseason closer, a few things became apparent:

1. Matt Cassel kind of sucks.
2. Matt Gutierrez is slightly better than Matt Cassel at this point, but also does not inspire any confidence should Brady go down.
3. Chad Jackson should be a legitimate receiving threat this season.
4. Michelle Obama would be the most attractive First Lady ever. By Far.
5. Kevin O’Connell is who I trust with this team.

The Patriots pre-season play has been slightly less than inspired. Laurence Maroney still looks like he’s running uphill all of the time, the defense looks like ti is weak, the offensive line seems old and unable to stop a pass rush.

I’m sure some of this could be a product of injuries. Some of it could be new players trying to find their ground. Some of it could be a 2007 season hangover.

But the bottom line is, Tom Brady hasn’t taken a snap with this team in any games yet this season.

Far be it from me to try and exaggreate healthy concerns for Brady or make excuses for him, but I think he should be ready for the season opener. The thing is, if he actually is hurt in any serious manner, or if he were to get hurt seriously, this Patriots team would sort of die with Matt Cassel at the helm.

Matt Cassel had the benefit of starting every pre-season game. That means he had the starters around him and the starters of the defenses going against him. And you what he did? Suck. Consistently.

Matt Gutierrez had flashes of being all right. He seems like he could be a backup.

The kind of guy that could lead a great team to a 6-10 record.

Matt Cassel has played like a quarterback that would lead the Patriots to a 2-14 record.

But last night we had the pleasure of seeing the rawness of Kevin O’Connell. And yeah, I understand he was playing against the Giants 3rd string. But guess what? He was playing with the Patriots 3rd string as well.

Kevin O’Connell is a gamer. He just seemed to have that swagger that successful quarterbacks need.

I like that he is mobile, I like his toughness and his passes really did seem to be crisp and on point (except for that timing route where he messed up and threw way behind someone, but that type of thing can happen to any quarterback on occasion).

I honestly do feel like Kevin O’Connell could lead this Patriots team to a 9-7 record should Brady be out for the season if he plays for a whole year the way he did int he 4th quarter last night.

In fact, had the Patriots defense found a way to stop the Giants with about 1:45 left int eh game, there is no doubt in my mind that O’Connell would have led the Patriots to a ridiculous come from behind victory.

Yeah, it was preseason. And he isn’t exactly a polished gem. But I think Bill Belichick would be making a huge mistake if he cut Kevin O’Connell. His raw athleticism and gamer mentality alone should be enough for Belichick to keep him around.

I liked what I saw in O’Connell last night. It made me wish I would have seen him at San Diego State University.

I also like that he is from Knoxville. Superdrag is from Knoxville. And they are decent folks.

O’Connell seems liek the type of player Belichick loves. He’s big, he’s athletic and based on his performance last night, I have no doubt that he would be willing to do anything to lead his team to victory (Including playing Safety or being on special teams).

There needs to be a spot for this guy on the roster.

Shawne Merriman Decides To Play in 2008. Stupid is the new “Gutsy”.

Shawne Merriman has decided that playing football right now, this season is more important than his health, the rest of his career, financial considerations and overall well-being in life in general.

Merriman has two torn ligaments in his knee. A lateral collateral and posterior cruciate. 

There have been rumors about these torn ligaments being career ending. It was suggested by 4 different doctors, that Merriman go through with surgery to repair the ligaments.

“To be as simple as possible, I just want to play football,” Merriman said. “That’s what it comes down to. I know what’s on the table, I know what’s on the line. I put a lot of work in this and I want to play.”

But the thing is…he obviously really doesn’t know what’s on the line.

Merriman is in his mid-20’s. He’s young. He is one of the best linebackers in the NFL. He has the world by the throat and he’s been doing that stupid lights out dance on it for the last 3 years.

That’s great and all, but these types of things are fleeting. 

Let’s just pretend that the health implications are a complete non-factor and just talk about the simple financial risk he is taking.

Merriman might have already made something like $100 million. Now, I don’t know how he’s living his life (because I’ve never met him), but if he is living large in any way shape or form, that money is not going to last him forever. He can ask Michael Vick about that if he wants proof.

And I say that not to compare Merriman to Michael Vick, but only because Vick should really serve as a cautionary tale to NFL players. That guy was rolling in money. He spent it like it was going out of style, probably figuring, innocently enough, that he would start saving once he was down to his last few seasons, never expecting that there would be an unforeseen circumstance that would force him out of the money (and game) that he was “investing” like crazy (in his “friends” who wanted to open stores, start business, be hangers’ on…etc.)

Vick is out of the NFL right now. In jail. And again, I don’t intend to draw any parallels between them or cast stones at Michael Vick who is doing the time for the crimes he committed. 

But, if Merriman gets one hard cut block to the knees, he could be in a different kind of prison. One where he stops making money, isn’t getting anything from the NFL’s retirement policy, has outstanding debts he can’t afford to pay off and has nothing but a bum knee and some videos to show of his short career.

And in the interest of full disclosure, I am not a Chargers fan. I don’t like Phillip Rivers at all. LaDainian Tomlinson has done nothing but run his mouth for the past few seasons and because the Patriots and Chargers are sort of in a long rivalry right now, I have to hate them.

But being that I love football and appreciate great talent, I would hate to see Merriman’s career cut short because he was being too much of a meathead to see the forrest from the trees.

Have you ever met anyone who had severe arthritis in their knees? Doesn’t sound like a fun life, right? 

How about someone who has had a knee replacement. Yeah, the technology for this is better than ever before, but life isn’t peachy when you have a plastic and steel knee.

Is Shawne Merriman prepared to walk around with a limp (at best) for the rest of his life, should something go wrong (and in the NFL, EVERYONE gets hurt and takes shots to their knees. It isn’t a question of “if”, it is a question of “when”)?

How does not being able to walk, having no money to cover medical expenses and living a life of regret sound to you? 

To me that sounds like a nightmare. 

Maybe I’m being over-dramatic, but those consequences are not all that far-fetched given the situation Merriman is in. 

If you are a Chargers fan, how could you stand behind this decision? 

Has anyone else noticed that LaDainian Tomlinson has gotten dumber and dumber over the course of his career? 

“How do you tell a warrior to sit down? That’s what he is, a warrior. He’s trained for this. It’s hard to tell a guy to sit down,” Tomlinson said.

Sure, that soundbyte would be fine, it would be “gutsy” and “warrior-like” if Merriman knew he was seriously injured (without knowing the full extent) but chose to play in the Superbowl, through the pain, for one game, to attempt to win a championship (ala Curt Schilling in the 2004 ALCS…and even he was never really the same afterwards). That is a “no guts, no glory” decision.

But to make this decision before the NFL season has even started? Ridiculous. If you think Merriman can play for 5 months without getting nailed in the knee at least once, you are crazy, dumb or Shawne Merriman. 

Going against the warnings of 4 doctors when you are young and have your whole career ahead of you isn’t gutsy or “warrior-like”. It’s stupid. Get the surgery, rest for and rehab for 15 months, maybe you could come back midway through the 2009 season.

I hope for Merriman’s sake someone steps in or he reconsiders. 

If not, the only thing that will be “Lights Out” for Merriman this year will be his hopes for the future.

Cadillac Williams Placed on the PUP List. Michael Strahan Shows Us How Retired Athletes SHOULD Act. The Ravens Have QB Issus Already. The Red Sox Will Trade For Mark Kotsay. Goings On At Chair. All That And Andy Rooney.

Carnell “Cadillac” Williams is looking more like a Cadillac Cimarron these days than the Escalade he once was.

Willimas was great in 2005 and had flashes of quality in 2006 and 2007 before injuries derailed him.

The Bucs have put him on the PUP list, which means he can’t play for weeks 1-6. It also means they do not have to waste a roster spot on him early in the season when he wouldn’t be healthy enough to play anyway.

This is not the kiss of death to Carnell’s career though. He could still even come back this season around week 7 or 8 and give the Bucs a mid-year boost (when they will likely need it due to other offensive players being injured by that point).

The real concern is, whenever a running back who is quick and makes cuts hurts a knee or ACL/MCL, you tend to wonder how that will affect their play in the future. Carnell isn’t exactly big enough to become a bulldozer, and those are usually the guys who have fewer issues recovering from this type of injury.

Hopefully the Bucs will have what they need in Graham and Warrick Dunn to make thing shappen with the running game.

Michael Strahan again makes fools of us all.

He announced earlier this week that he would consider coming back to the Giants who have lost Pro Bowl Defensive End Osi Umenyiora for the season.

Strahan and Umenyiora were sort of the only reason why the Giants won the Superbowl. Miracle catch, Patriots supreme overconfidence and Belichick’s poor coaching aside.

Remember that I predicted a sub-par follow up campaign for the Giants this season on Friday afternoon BEFORE Umenyiora even was injured. Now? Well, they will at least have something to blame it on.

Last year the Giants were sort of like the Colorado Rockies. They were just the team that got hot at exactly the right time. They outplayed the Patriots and rightfully won the Superbowl.

But I think a lot of that magic was sort of lightning in a bottle.

Especially if McNabb stays as focused and locked in as he seems to be and the Cowboys remain the Cowboys. That won’t be an easy division.

Kyle Boller could potentially ALREADY be done for the season. He supposedly is unable to raise his arm over his head. The Ravens did not like the results of the first MRI, so are sending him somewhere else for a second opinion.

By the way, what is up with all this second guessing of medical professionals going on right now? I understand a second opinion for Boller, sure. But I heard on Friday that Shawn Merriman has seen something like 5 doctors in hopes that one of them would tell him its fine to play on a knee with two torn ligaments and that he won’t need the surgery. He needs the surgery. If he wants to be able to walk and not need a knee replacement at 32, he NEEDS surgery. People are abuzz about hwo his career might be over.

Troy Smith is injured right now as well (I think tonsillitis?) and as a result Joe Flacco will be their starter for the last preseason game.

I also expect the Ravens to sort of have a QB controversy all season long. So…This is just sooner than expected.

Mark Kotsay might be headed to the Red Sox.

Anyway, Kotsay could be a decent bat for the Sox. As logn as they don’t have to give up anything to get him, they should do it.

This Red Sox team is so injured it is alarming. Mike Lowell, JD Drew, Bartolo Colon, David Aardsma and Julio Lugo are all on the DL right now. This is trouble.

In Chair news, we are half way through our NFL 2008 Previews. Expect more of them. Full of words and predictions and purdy pictures stolen from the intranets.

We also premiered a new column this morning called “An Open Letter” or “AOL”. “AOL” of course being an acronym that was previosuly unused in common vocabulary. “AOL” will deal with the tough issues. The serious issues. All while being a forum where I can bitch relentlessly about things that are not necessarily related to sports.

Please, say hello to Chair.

-YR

An Open Letter To Gillette

Gillette, you’ve convinced me.

You truly are the best a man can get.

I appreciate everything you have done for me over the years. Like that free unsolicited Mach3 you mailed to me on my 18th birthday. That was really sweet of you Gillette.

Your razors are clearly the most superior men’s razors on the market. I know because I have tried others.

In fact, on Christmas morning 2007, I tried shaving with a disposable Schick (because I was at my parent’s house) and not only did I cut myself in five places, but the blood was so thick that it stained my favorite Have Heart shirt.

This type of adverse event would never happen with a quality Gillette razor. They work dry, they work with just water, they work with soap and they work with any shaving cream perfectly.

Gillette is just superior.

I feel that in addition to making the highest quality razors, by purchasing Gillette products, I am helping a local business. Something I am happy to do, as Gillette employs thousands of Massachusetts residents right in my back yard.

The thing is, you don’t exactly make it cheap to shave.

I personally only shave twice a week. I don’t have a job that requires daily shaving at this point in my life (at “Chair – A Place To Sit” do not discriminate against hairy men. If we did, Officer Crowley would have never been hired). I have had jobs that required this in the past. But presently, I am a twice a week guy.

The standard Mach 3 razor will last me about 3 to 5 weeks at two uses a week. And that is IF I dry it thoroughly after each use.

That means I get 6 to 10 shaves per blade.

An 8 pack retails for what, like $28?

I don’t understand why I should pay over $1 a week to shave.

I mean an 8 pack of Dove soap costs like $7.99. I bar of soap lasts me 7-12 days. How is it that showering with really high quality soap costs less than shaving?

I suggest a price drop. Gerard Sloan requests the same. Or at the very least, I request that the blades last longer than 6 to 10 shaves. I want a minimum of 15 shaves for the current price.

Listen Gillette, I don’t believe all the false accusations. I understand you are a company with an illustrious history in shaving.

At the very least, please lower the prices of the original Mach3 blades to something reasonable (like $10-$13 for an 8 pack).

You’re hurting me.

And if I don’t shave, I grow a neck beard like you wouldn’t believe…

Thank you for your time.

-YR

(this letter inspired by the woes of Sloan combined with my recent brokeness)

2008 NFL Preview: AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

There are just some teams you hate.

I hate the Steelers.

The funny thing is, unlike the Cowboys where I never liked Michael Irvin and despised Deion Sanders, I don’t even dislike any of the players on the Steelers. I mean, I guess I dislike Troy Polamalu and his stupid hair. But most of that might just be because I wish he was on the Patriots…

Nope. It was Steelers fans that made me hate the Steelers. Steelers fans that were inexplicably in Rhode Island when I was growing up.

Let me break this down really quick:

When I was a kid almost everyone was a Cowboys “fan” or a 49ers “fan” because those teams were in vogue back then. Kids on a bandwagon, probably because their fathers were bandwagon jumping losers as well. No big deal.

The worst were the Steelers”fans”. These were kids whose fathers were bandwagon jumpers in the 70’s and were too lazy to even jump to another bandwagon after Terry Bradshaw hung it up. In central Rhode Island, we had no geographic proximity to Pittsburgh. Like, I accepted a few New York fans due to the fact that a lot of people’s families were from New York, makes sense at least.

But Pittsburgh?

It’s not like there were 14 families in my elementary school that were Pittsburgh transplants. No. Those people were just lazy assholes with shitty kids.

These were the same clowns who went Tommy Maddox crazy when I was in college.

Anyway, The Steelers have Roethlisberger who is consistent and a solid QB.

They have Hines Ward (who has lost a step but is still good) and Santonio Holmes (who looks like a superstar receiver in the making to me).

Willie Parker is one of the top 10 half backs in the NFL, and the Steelers also drafted Rashard Mendenhall this off season.

And you know what else?

I LIKE Mike Tomlin.  He had some pretty gigantic shoes to fill last season and I think he did a decent job with what he had.

The defensive line doesn’t look all that intimidating. That is one place I feel the Steelers could have made an upgrade or two in the off season, but the Linebackers make up for it as Larry Foote, James Harrison and James Farrior are all great at what they do.

The secondary is still the same. Tough. One of the better groups in the NFL.

The trouble is, in spite of being in a shitty division (Browns aside, they are), The Steelers have one hell of a schedule this season. They have 9 games that could go either way.

They were 10-6 last year. Aside from Polamalu being healthy all season (maybe) and a new rookie running back with an undetermined role at this point, this is largely the same team as in 2007.

My definitive prediction is a 10-6 record for the Steelers in 2008.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have a really good defense still.

A really really good defense.

Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Samari Rolle. A really great defensive core.

That’s about it.

They are kind of like the east coast Bears at Quarterback right now with Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and Joe Flacco all in the mix.

On the plus side for them, they have much better receivers with Derick Mason, Mark Clayton and the young but promising Demetrius Williams.

Their running game is also solid as Willis McGahee delivers each season (except for those times when he is hurt) and the Ravens added Ray Rice from Rutgers to relieve McGahee.

The issues they will have though, will be similar to the issues the Bears have. Offensive production not holding up its end of the bargain and putting a ton of pressure on a great defense. This would be all right if they had a really easy schedule.

Unfortunately, the Ravens will play 10 games they could easily lose. They also have the distinct honor of playing in Pittsburgh, Indy, Dallas and New York (Giants) this season. Yikes.

Last season the Ravens also had the honor of nearly beating the Patriots (I wish they would have in retrospect, as the Patriots would almost certainly not have lost the Superbowl) but then being defeated in overtime by the then win-less Miami Dolphins.

They were 5-11 last season.

My definitive prediction is a 6-10 record for the Ravens in 2008.

Cincinnati Bengals

Is Carson Palmer depressed?

Do you ever feel like he thinks to himself “I’m better than this. This whole organization is a joke. I feel like I’m on the early 2000’s Portland Trailblazers. Bunch of assholes!”

Chad Johnson is now hurt more than anyone thought. It is a partially torn labrum. He might be out for half the season. Who knows.

Palmer still has Houshmandzadeh to throw to. The trouble is, beyond Housh, the Bengals have Chris Henry and Antonio Chatman. That doesn’t sound like a major issue for pass coverage to me…

They also have the distinct honor of having already sustained several injuries during preseason. Rudi Johnson is ALREADY hurt. That’s not good. Kenny Watson and Chris Perry don’t seem like a one-two punch that will knock anyone out running the ball. Though Watson was good last season, he is 30 and has never started for a full season. I have to question his durability.

I’m not sold on the Bengals have the amount of weapons they will need offensively to put up points consistently. Even in spite of Carson Palmer, if a team starts the season playing backups at running back and wide receivers, it isn’t going to be easy for everyone to be on the same page even if/when the starters return.

In other words, their offense is in sort of a tough spot right now.

The Bengals defense, on the other hand, the defense that was embarrassingly bad for most of last season (allowing 30+ points 5 times, allowing 50+ points once) made only two real additions, Brandon Johnson at linebacker and Antwan Odom on the defensive line.

These are not flashy additions, but maybe the Bengals felt they just needed some new blood. Who knows.

Either way, I don’t see the defense being worse than last season. To their credit, they do still have a lot of developing players learning on the job on the defensive side of the ball.

But I think this will be another building year for the Bengals.

Or maybe they will just have to blow it up in 2009.

The prediction below is mostly because I think that in addition to having injuries and adversity to deal with before the season even starts, this team is doomed. Awful coaching. No chemistry. Star players that don’t want to be there. Great teams band together to overcome those types of things. This is not a great team.

On the other hand, if they do finish with a winning record in 2008, it will be BECAUSE they found a way to band together in spite of insurmountable odds. But I don’t think that will happen. Not with this collection of guys.

My definitive prediction is a 5-11 record for the Bengals in 2008.

Cleveland Browns

I wish Derek Anderson wasn’t concussed.

Anderson was great last season.

Not like Jon Kitna “great” either. He threw 29 TDs and 19 INTs. Almost 4,000 yards passing.

This season Romeo got him Donte Stallworth (a legitimate #2 wide receiver to throw to) and added another fast set of hands to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. I love those three guys catching passes and last year Anderson proved he was the guy who should be throwing them.

Brady Quinn Brady Shimim.

At Half Back, the Browns had Jamal Lewis with a chip on his shoulder last season. If Lewis is motivated this year, they should have an even stronger offense than in 2007 (they were surprisingly solid).

The Browns feature a secondary that is young and fast. Sean Jones will be a superstar this season. Eric Wright, Brodney Pool and Brandon McDonald will continue to develop.

The Linebackers are also young and fast. Willie McGinist must be the oldest person on the team, but I’m sure he’ll get subbed out a lot for Leon Williams. If Kamerion Wimbley takes another step up this season, he could be a Pro Bowler. D’Qwell Jacksonis also a young and fantastic linebacker.

The Browns also made the very wise decision to improve their defensive line in the off-season. They acquired Corey Williams from Green Bay and Shaun Rogers from the Lions. Rogers is a solid pass rusher and should serve nicely as Nose Tackle plugging up holes.

The Browns took care of their needs this off-season. It should pay dividends on the field.

I really don’t think 2007 was a fluke. This is a team on the rise. And I think they will upset the Cowboys in week 1.

My definitive prediction is an 11-5 record for the Browns in 2008.

2008 NFL Preview: NFC North

Detroit Lions

I mentioned earlier how little the NFL Preseason usually means.

I’m sure Matt Millen, Jon Kitna, Calvin Johnson, Jerry Sloan and the rest of the regulars at indeedindeed are hoping that in the case of the Lions, it means that they actually do have the best 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players in the league.

The Lions are 3-0 in preseason so far. I honestly don’t remember the last time the Lions started the regular season 3-0. They were 0-3 in 2002. I think they were like 0-6 in 2006…

On offense, the Lions haven’t really added anything noticeable for 2008. They still have the same team there. The same great receiving group (Calvin Johnson [above] will be even better this year, Roy Williams will be Roy Williams again and Shaun McDonald will continue to be a quality #3 option).

The biggest addition (really the only major addition) on offense was Kevin Smith. Right now onthe depthchart, the Lions have Tatum Bell officially listed as the starter, but Kevin Smith is supposed to be one of the most high impact rookies in the NFL this season according to USA Today. I’m never sold on a rookie half back being the savior of a one dimensional offense. Too much can go wrong.

There is the always exciting Jon Kitna returning to the fold.

One time I wrote that Jon Kitna is a horrible excuse for a quarterback. That isn’t exactly true…but he also isn’t someone you want to carry a young and talented offense.

He is 35. He has played 11 seasons in the NFL. Through 11 seasons, he has thrown 147 TDs. That isn’t bad when you consider he was a backup for several of those seasons. Unfortunately for Kitna he has also thrown 146 INTs in those 11 seasons. Yikes. Guy has played 11 years in the NFL and has a +1 TD/INT ratio. Clearly he is Rex Grossman’s idol.

Kitna has passed for over 26,000 yards in his career, notching over 4,000 yards per season in 2006 and 2007. That is impressive for someone who is old. But this is a result of the Mike Martz era. Not a result of Kitna being a rogue leader who does whatever he can to make things happen.

The thing is, Kitna isn’t a horrible quarterback. In spite of the +1 career ratio andthe age, he is still probably around 16th or so in the league. Maybe even higher. Because a) at this point in history no one can throw a football the right way anymore, b) young guys get so little time to prove themselves that old guys (Todd Collins, Kurt Warner, Jon Kitna) find themselves not only employed, but also decent options simply due to their seasons of experience and ability to handle the pressure and c) the quality of quarterbacks overall seems to have fallen off the charts in the last 7 years or so. Maybe it is due to the expansion of the league. Too many teams and not enough talent. Maybe it is defenses getting better…

When I was younger the NFL had Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon…etc. There seemed to be a decent to great QB on almost every team. Now it is laughable who most teams trot out at starting QB.

Anyway, in this NFL, Kitna is clearly a valuable starter.

But without improvements, the Lions will have the same exact offensive problems they had in 2007.

On defense, the Lions did not improve their starting defensive line. They still seem horrible unbalanced (a decent right side with Cory Redding and Dewayne White, both young and quick and a HORRIBLE left side Chartric Darby and Jared DeVries).

Their linebackers are solid. Ernie Sims and Paris Lenon are both good linebackers and Alex Lewis is serviceable. What I question is why they don’t run a 3-4 and plug in a rotation of the younger linebackers on the bench. Chartric Darby doesn’t impress me at all and I think the Lions might be stronger on defense if they used him as someone the 2 good D line could get rotated out for. Anthony Cannon and Buster Davis would probably add more to the pass rush (and coverage) than Darby if they used a 3-4 instead of a 4-3.

The Lions did add Brian Kelly to their corners. He should be all right in spite of his 32 years. Dwight Smith is a solid DB that they brought in from Minnesota. Gerald Alexander had a nice rookie season last year and Leigh Bodden was another great addition from Cleveland.

Clearly the Lions felt that their greatest weakness last season was their coverage. I respectfully disagree (a running game would have helped, as would a better D line). However, I said in my AFC East column that there are few teams with a really good secondary, barring health concerns, the Lions probably have one of the best secondaries (on paper) in the league in 2008.

Of course a secondary is only as good as the pass rush in front of it….where they need a little work…still…

If the Lions try to be slightly more balanced on offense and they do end up mixing things up with the linebackers and occasionally using a 3-4 (WHICH SUITS THEM FAR BETTER) they could be a decent team. That’s a lot of ifs. And those ‘ifs’ are directly related to the coaching. The coaching being where most of my concerns are.

If the secondary is as good as advertised and if the Lions don’t have the worst coaching in the NFL and use a balanced offense (at least a SLIGHTLY balanced offense) they might not be half bad in kind of a weak division.

My definitive prediction is a 9-7 record for the Lions in 2008.

Minnesota Vikings

Does Adrian peterson make anyone else nervous?

He reminds me of Bo Jackson sort of.

To me, Bo Jackson was like Icarus, he was so great that he flew too close to the sun. I fear Adrian Peterson will share his fate.

When Peterson hurt is knee last season I was really worried that it was going to be this horrible career-ending tradgedy. I’m not kidding. He’s so talented that I feel like I wouldn’t be surprised at all if something horrific happened to him, if that makes sense.

The Vikings have the honor of having one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL on their team in Steve Hutchinson. The rest of the O-line is decent to pretty good.

Chester Taylor is the other half back and Taylor is nothing to scoff at either (something tells me Taylor will get a big payday as a starter somewhere when his contract is up).

But the receivers? Scoff away.

They have Bernard Berrianwho was never all that great with Chicago (and you can make the argument that this was a result of having shitty QBs all the time, more on this later) but he is young and has statistically improved each season, Sidney Rice who is only 21 and still unproven, Robert Ferguson (who has never been all that great) and Bobby Wade who is decent but not great as a #4.

That is not exactly a stellar receiving crew, but you get the feeling that they would be fine with an ok quarterback. I feel that someone like Marc Bulger would work wonders with these guys. Obviously Peyton Manning or Tom Brady would make them look like Hall of Famers and someone like Jon Kitna would be all right with that crew a solid O-line and a great running back….

Unfortunately for the Vikings (and their fans) they have Tarvaris Jackson as their starting quarterback.

Tarvaris Jackson is still a work in progress. The thing is, if he doesn’t get better by about week 9 this season, The Vikings will abandon all hope on him and let Gus Frerotte take the reins.

I can’t believe Gus Frerotte is still playing. Oh, and by the way Jon Kitna, Frerotte has played 14 seasons, he has a +11 TD to INT ratio!

The Vikings have a solid secondary as well. With youngster Cedric Griffin, new addition Madieu Williams, Antoine Winfield and and older but still decent Darren Sharper rounding things out.

The Vikings are another team that primarily uses a 4-3 on defense and has sort of a mixed bag on the defensive line. No real superstars but no complete scrubs either.

Their linebackers are something to behold though. Chad Greenway had a great rookie season and if he continues on the same path he will be quite a linebacker. E.J. Hendersonis great and Ben Leber is definitely solid as well.

The Vikings did a nice job adding to their secondary. This could be a defense that causes some serious issues.

The question is, can they develop a passing game?

I understand and agree that Adrian Peterson is almost unstoppable. But won’t defenses just starting putting 7-8 guys in the box on every down? If the Vikings can’t throw the ball how are they going to get on the board? Peterson may be unstoppable, but he can’t get 40 carries a game every game.

if this team had even a decent quarterback (someone who is like the 20th to 15th best in the league) they would be really really really good. Like NFC Championship without batting an eye good.

But they don’t…so…

My definitive prediction is a 10-6 record for the Vikings in 2008.

Green Bay Packers

How much mercy do I show a fan-base that cares about one indecisive star player than an organization?

NO MERCY.

What Green Bay Packers fans who have sided with Brett Favre (the ones that demanded that jets games be shown in Green Bay) have done is that they have sided with Manny Ramirez.

Remember when I wrote about how Manny Ramirez had to be traded for the good of the Red Sox? I meant it.

I wish Manny no particular harm with the Dodgers, but the Red Sox were my team long before Manny signed with them and will be long after he is retired. A true Packers fan would be outraged that Favre had the audacity to drone on and on in his press conference about how things had changed and how he wasn’t mentally preparing himself 100% anymore AND THEN had the audacity to COME BACK TO THE LEAGUE.

Do you want a guy who is half-assing it on your team?

All Packers ownership and management issues aside (which it sounds like there are plenty of), Favre was holding them hostage. He demanded a trade. He’s just selfish.

GET OVER IT GREEN BAY. He was a great player for you. Fine. Retire his number when he retires. Tell your grand-kids how great he was then. But right now, he is the enemy. And switching allegiance to another team for a player is the second most bandwagon move you could pull.

Now that I have that off my chest, this Packers offense is basically the same except with a big downgrade at QB in Aaron Rogers.

Rogers will not be that good (because he needs some playing time to develop) but the Packers still have a really great receiving group with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones and Donald Lee at TE and behind the quality O-line, Ryan Grant emerged as a legitimate starting half back last season.

If Aaron Rogers can learn the offense and be a game manager/not make horrible decisions, the Packers should be all right to score points.

The defense is riddled with injuries right now. Whether they carry over into the season or not is anybody’s guess.

Ryan Pickett is a notable addition on the defensive line (even though he is hurt now and has a history of injuries). The rest of the d-line is unchanged.

The Packers still have a great linebacker group (unchanged from 2007) featuring Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk.

The Secondary is still good as well.

There have not been a whole lot of changes to the Green Bay roster. Just one big one.

Andthey didn’t win it all with Favre, so I’m inclined to believe they cannot win it all withthe same team this year with an unproven quarterback.

Don’t be surprised if the Packers start the 2008 season 0-7 (it would only take a Falcons win over them as a stretch…the rest are quality opponents). Also, unlike the Jets who SUCKED in 2007, the Packers have the pleasure of having a pretty difficult schedule in 2008 due to their 2007 success.

My definitive prediction is a 4-12 record for the Packers in 2008.

You know how you can tell when your offense is doomed?

When you have a quarterback controversy between one guy who has been on yoru team as an on and off starter due to baffling inconsistency and another guy who indirectly replaced the first guy 3 years ago but was so inconsistent that you went back to the first guy andhe led you to a Superbowl where he folded like a rusty lawn chair so the next year you went back to the second at late in the season.

Rex Grossman (sexy Rexy) and Kyle Orton (Jack Daniels) are those two guys.

Because the NFL does not award points to teams for players having sick moustaches, Kyle Orton is in trouble.

But there is good news Bears fans, the Bears made two major additions to the receivers this year.

That’s right! Management brought back Marty Booker as your number 1 option! yeah, the same Marty Booker that had 100 catches on your team in 2001. Him! He’s back! And he’s only 32 and coming off four consecutive seasons of 55 receptions and 700 yards or less! Yeah. He’s still just as good as he was in 2001. His best days are not behind him at all!!!

But Marty Booker isn’t the only new target for Sexy Rexy and Jack Daniels to throw INTs past, oh no, the Bears also brought in Brandon Lloyd! Yeah, the same Brandon Lloyd who has always been sort of an underachiever. That one.

At least at running back the Bears have added Matt Forte, who might turn into a nice option. They also have Adrian Peterson. No, not that Adrian Peterson. The other one. The one who doesn’t look like a young legend.

I’m not sold on this offense.

I even hate Robbie Gould. Robbie Gould cost me $250 in 2006. I will never forgive him. JUST PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS YOU JACKASS!!!

On the plus side, the Bears defense is still the Bears defense. Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher will still make opposing quarterbacks hate their lives. So…there is that.

But this is a one-sided football team with two guys competing for the quarterback job. And let me assure you, the competition will last all season.

If Orton and/or Grossman were just sub-par QBs who threw the ball away under pressure and didn’t HELP the other team, they would be fine. The Bears would win some games, the defense will fill in the gaping offensive hole. Intentional.

But I sincerely believe that both Orton and Grossman do more to hurt the Bears than help them. They would almost be better off just putting Devin Hester in at quarterback and running shitty dump pass plays, options and laterals all season. Actually, I think they would be much better off if they did that. As stupid as it would be…

My definitive prediction is a 6-10 record for the Bears in 2008.

2008 NFL Preview: AFC East

New York Jets

You know, looking over the offensive side of the 2008 New York Jets, it seems hard to say they will be bad. Maybe they won’t be great, but their offense seems decent.

The Jets spent some money in the off season improving their offensive line. D’Brichashaw Ferguson (on the shortlist fo best name in the NFL) is young and strong. Alan Faneca has quite a reputation. Damien Woody was a quality O-line guy for the Patriots years ago. Nick Mangold is a tough Center. I don’t see any real holes there.

Obviously Brett Favre was a big addition to a team without a leader.

And to be honest, more than not having a quarterback that has been consistent for the last few years, I truly believe one of the Jets main problems is that they have been a team without a leader.

Maybe Curtis Martin was the leader in years past. But one thing always struck me about Chad Pennington: he didn’t seem like leader material.

I have never been in a huddle with Pennington, but I do think that, for one, when a player is injured frequently, it definitely takes some of the leadership luster off of them for the simple fact that they are not in it in the same way with the rest of the guys. But the thing that stands out to me about Pennington, is that he never seemed like a cowboy.

If there is one trait that all great quarterbacks seem to possess, and this is something that is true across all races, ages and athletic abilities, it is that a great quarterback is a great leader and is John Wayne (from his War movies) mixed with John Wayne (from his Western movies). A great quarterback needs a little arrogance. They need to be unafraid and confident in their team. Joe Namath had it. Joe Montana had it.  John Elway had it. Brett Favre has it. Tom Brady has it. Peyton Manning has it. Donovan McNabb had it (when he was younger/before all the injuries).

Chad Pennington? That guy always looked scared to me.

Did John Wayne ever look scared to you?

So Brett Favre is obviously a step up here.

But the thing that MUST carry the Jets are the wide receivers. And to be honest, this is where the holes start to appear.

Jericho Cotchery could be the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL (or in your fantasy league). He’s 6′0″, he’s athletic, he’s young and he has never had a good quarterback throwing to him before, yet has still somehow managed 2,000 yards receiving over the last two seasons. Ignore his bad 8 TDs over the same span. No one was throwing touchdowns in New York. Cotchery should be a great option for the Jets.

Laveranues Coles has had similar output to Cotchery over a longer amount of time. The only concern I have with Coles is that he is a little older (30) and a little undersized (not that this has hurt him in seasons past, but Troy Brown could tell you that when you are an undersized wide-out, the older you get, the harder it becomes to get past the younger defensive backs around you and make up for your lack of stature with your agility and speed. Still, Coles is a good #1 option.

Beyond those two however, the Jets are a little unproven. Who knows, maybe Brad Smith (who is the right size [6'2" 210 lbs] to be a solid wide-out) will blossom this year, but I am not overwhelmed beyond Cotchery and Coles.

Chris Baker and Bubba Franks might provide Favre with the extra targets he’ll need at Tight End.

The biggest issue with the Jets is their running game.

Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Musa Smith, Jesse Chatman. That sounds like a list of undrafted free agents in your Fantasy League that you are forced to choose between around week 6 when two of your good running backs are hurt. You don’t like the way any of them look, but you need to use one of them.

The plus side for the Jets is the fantastic offensive line. Maybe they will platoon the running backs, use all four of them and figure it out as they go. Or maybe Thomas Jones will develop into a legitimate #1 back. We’ll have to see.

The thing is, if the Jets DID have someone like Steven Jackson or Marshawn Lynch or even Edgerrin James in the backfield, they would look like a legitimate Superbowl threat on offense (on paper).

You’ll notice that I spent a lot of time talking about the Jets offense. That is because I don’t have much to say about the defense. On paper, it doesn’t look like a very formidable squad. Not a lot of ultra recognizable names here. Obviously Vernon Gholston will be exciting (seeing how he turns out, anyway), but I don’t think this Jets defense is going to be better than run-of-the-mill. They might surprise and finish as like the 12th best defense. I expect them to be around 18 or so and as a result they will constantly end up putting pressure on the offense to score (which they should not have as much trouble doing).

A great benefit of being bad last season is a quasi-cakewalk schedule in 2008. They only have about 6 tough match ups. If the Bills come out with a vengeance, the Jets might have some trouble though.

And as much as I want to see Brett Favre embarrassed and have his legacy squandered, as much as I hate the Jets…

My definitive prediction is a 10-6 record for the Jets in 2008.

Buffalo Bills

When I look at the Buffalo Bills offense in 2008, it doesn’t look like they have made many upgrades.

They are still a little shaky beyond Lee Evans at Wide Receiver. I am not floored by Roscoe Parrish or Josh Reed. In retrospect, this is a team that probably would have benefitted from signing SOMEONE else at WR in the off season.

Marshawn Lynch was marvelous last year. He made Willis McGahee look like the most replaceable running back ever.

The offensive line is decent.

The biggest question mark is Quarterback. And that is NOT a place to have your biggest question mark.

In theory, the Bills are in a great situation. After all, JP Losman is only one year removed from 3,000 yards and 19 TDs. Losman was everything you could hope for in 2006. Not great. Not really awe inspiring. A game manager. Maybe with some potential for growth.

Then last year happened.

Injuries forced a younger QB (not that Losman is an old man at 27), Trent Edwards to emerge. And Edwards showed flashes of quality for a younger QB. Or at least, he gave the Bills the same results they got from the more experienced Losman and made them question whether they should switch to Edwards to develop him full time or not.

This is kind of a shitty quandaryfor a few reasons. Yes, there are MORE uninspired starting QB struggles in the NFL (Chicago Bears, anyone?), but by yanking both of these guys around, neither of them gets to show what they can do. I mean, guys need a full season to prove themselves. No one can show how talented they are in 8 games when they constantly fear getting yanked after every INT.

But on the same token, I think Losman AND Edwards both have more upside than a few starting quarterbacks in the league.

Either way, a QB rating around 74.0 isn’t going to cut it as a starter. I hope both of them improve this year.

On defense, the Bills improved their D-line by adding Marcus Stroud from Jacksonville. Stroud and Schobel will be a formidable combination for a lot of offensive lines to block. Kyle Williams and Chris Kelsay are both solid and round out the defensive line.

The Bills also added Kawika Mitchell from the Giants. Mitchell actually had a down season last year and if he can somehow regain his 2006 form (104 tackles) he should be a great addition. Paul Posluszny was having an incredible rookie season through 3 games last year (26 tackles, 17 of them solo)…incredible is an understatement actually, the guy was unreal before getting injured for the season. Posluszny could be a defensive emperor for years to come at linebacker. Angelo Crowell is also a hard worker who rounds out the starting linebackers.

The Bills secondary doesn’t look amazing on paper, but few NFL teams do have a great secondary.

On paper the Bills will be amazing at the pass rush. They are not going to be easy for any offensive line to shut down. The issue is, if the secondary is sub-par, when the Bills blitz, if the offense picks it up, there could be a lot of passing touchdowns thrown against them. I don’t think teams without feature running backs stand much of chance of getting beyond 70 yards on the ground against this front 7.

So the biggest question remains…who is going to lead this team? And will Losman OR Edwards do a good job at QB?

So much on offense could go either way…The Bills could be one of those teams that looks great and wins a game 17-3 one week and then loses a game 14-3 the next. I could easily see that happening.

My definitive prediction is an 8-8 record for the Bills in 2008.

Miami Dolphins

It’s hard to say a lot about the Dolphins.

Last year they were painful to watch. 1-15 painful. Nearly 0-16 painful. Nearly.

That won’t happen this year. Bill Parcells has added Jake Long who will surely fill in a huge hole on the offensive line.

Ronnie Brown is expected to be healthy. As is Ricky Williams (though I never count on him for anything). And Ronnie Brown, just so you remember, is probably one of the top 5 running backs in the NFL. Behind Peterson, Tomlinson, maybe Steven Jackson, maybe Larry Johnson (both have fallen from grace). This is a league without a lot of premier running backs and Ronnie Brown over the course of his short career, has proven that he can run and catch and do a lot without a lot blocking (of course this has also led to some injuries…).

At Wide Receiver, the Dolphins made the very very very smart addition of Ernest Wilford. Wilford is huge (6′4″ 223 lbs.) and young and was very effective in Jacksonville (where they constantly used 4 tall WRs interchangeably) and should easily be Chad Pennington’s favorite target in Miami. Ted Ginn Jr. I just don’t get. he might develop into a Laveranues Coles type receiver (Coles may be the #1 on the Jets, but he is no alpha dog among top NFL receivers. he’ll never be in the T.O., Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald group). He’s but I always thought that he was overrated in college and over-drafted by the Dolphins. Maybe he’ll be serviceable. Beyond those two is a lot of young and undeveloped targets.

At quarterback the Dolphins have Chad Pennington.

Here’s the thing about Pennington, he just got cut for Brett Favre. After years of playing hard for the Jets, leading them to the playoffs, and generally being a solid game manager and sometimes all right quarterback. This is his chance to have a chip on his shoulder, go out there and lead the Dolphins to a surprisingly successful campaign.

If Pennington is healthy and plays with a chip on his shoulder, who knows. Maybe he’ll throw 20 TDs and 9 INTs for like 3,000 yards and look great again. If he can play gutsy football on a shaky team, I will take back all of the bad things I have said about him.

Realistically, I see no way this team can possibly finish with a winning record. It just isn’t in the cards. They need another solid wide receiver on offense and some improvements to the defensive line and secondary on defense.

But…

They can be a team that upsets a good team on occasion and wins a couple of monumental games for the franchise. This season should be a turning point for them. If they finish 7-9 it will be an amazing rebound after last year. But you get the sense that even finishing 5-11 would be an accomplishment.

On defense I don’t see too much promise. Joey Porter will probably be healthy. Akin Ayodele was a nice addition to the Linebackers as well. But by and large, this Dolphins defense seems young and unproven in some places and experienced yet underwhelming in others.

This is a rebuilding year. 2009 will also probably be a rebuilding year. But I do expect progress each season. I think they will be very competitive again by 2010 (if all goes according to plan).  

The good thing is, when a team hits rock bottom, they get to overhaul and improve from the ground up. Some teams (Detroit Lions) stay decent enough to never get a great draft pick for years but never get good enough to go to the Superbowl. Sorry Dolphins fans, but this is for your own good.

My definitive prediction is a 4-12 record for the Dolphins in 2008.

New England Patriots

You know what really isn’t promising? The way the Patriots have played this preseason.

The most gutsy thing I have seen them do is Matt Gutierrez (3rd string QB) leading them to 2 touchdowns against the Eagles 3rd string defense at the end of the game on Friday night.

And yes, I am a firm believer that preseason means very little when it comes to the actual NFL…but I still think the Patriots need to step up a little bit or they will suffer some rust early in the season (and that will not be good).

The Patriots still have the same starting offensive line that was devoured by the Giants defense in the Superbowl. They added some back ups (added some youth here) but the starting O-line is the same.

At wide-out they lost Donte Stallworth but still have Moss, Welker, Jabar Gaffney and expect the full return (and rebirth) of Chad Jackson (who did look good on Friday). They also have Kelley Washington and Sam Aiken who might catch a pass here and there. That is still a high quality receiving group. Probably one of the best sets in the NFL.

The tight ends are the same (Watson and Thomas).

Something the Patriots have done almost every off season for the last decade or so is add another running back. Usually it is someone who was decent as a backup on another team or a veteran in the twilight of their career. Last season they added Sammy Morris for depth. Unfortunately Morris was injured several games in a missed the rest of the season. This isn’t to say that the Patriots were short-handed at running back (they had Kevin Faulk and Maroney splitting time as well as the occasional Kyle Eckel carry)…the thing is, running backs get hurt. Easily. It happens.

Kevin Faulk is not a workhorse back. He can take a few carries a game and catch passes, but he isn’t a grinding back.

Maroney is a finesse runner. he cuts a lot and when he gets into the open field, he is great, but he also doesn’t exactly bang through guys.

Sammy Morris was great last year because he was powerful and solid in short yardage situations.

Morris is back and the Patriots took it a step further and added Lamont Jordan this season as well. Jordan is a bruiser when he’s healthy. If the Patriots split time between the backs, they should have no problem frustrating defenses and establishing a ground game. If they split time, they will also be able to keep guys fresh and (hopefully) reduce the stress on all of them throughout the regular season so that they are all healthy and energetic for the Playoffs (in a perfect world…in real life, having 3 of them left for the Playoffs would be astounding).

I love the Jordan pick up.

On defense, the Patriots got faster and younger. They added Victor Hobson (who should be great in the mix) and Jerod Mayo and Shawn Crable look like they should be solid additions to the pass rush.

In the secondary the Patriots sort of seemed to embrace that no team has a great secondary, so they added a series of young guys who are capable and hopefully can provide the coverage they were so sorely lacking for a lot of last season. Losing Asante Samuel shouldn’t be a huge issue. Nor should losing Randall Gay. If the pass rush is better, the defensive backs don’t need to be better (it would help, but I think the idea is a great pass rush will offset the loss of having [at best] an average secondary). And as always, I’m inclined to believe that Bill Belichick knows what he’s doing when it comes to coaching a team and developing players.

Still, the preseason does not look promising.

And looking at the schedule, if the rust does carry over, I could easily see a situation where the Patriots are 4-4 through week 9.

I’m going low ball it and assume the worst of this team.

My definitive prediction is an 11-5 record for the Patriots in 2008.

2008 NFL Preview: NFC East

Washington Redskins

There are a few things wrong with the Redskins. The first is that Jason Campbell is still a giant question mark.

Campbell has played in 20 NFL games. Through 20 games he has thrown for nearly 4,000 yards, 22 TDs and 17 INTs. His QB rating is 77.3.

None of that seems all that remarkable.

I will give him the benefit of the doubt seeing as he isn’t exactly surrounded by amazing targets. But the way I see it, he has about 4 weeks to prove that he maturing and becoming a better quarterback. Or else.

Behind Campbell is 73 year old Todd Collins and newcomer Colt Brennan (that picture of him on ESPN the magazine just made me want to punch him in the face).

Before even getting into the rest of the Skins offense, let’s just take a look at those crucial first four games:

1. @ Giants

2. Saints

3. Cardinals

4. @ Dallas

The way I see it, the Skins will be lucky to come out of those 4 games at 2-2. If Jason Campbell is less than remarkable through those games, he’ll be on the bench (for a couple of weeks).

In the backfield they have Clinton Portis who was sort of back in form last season and Ladell Betts who seems to be a decent second option (he had a shit load of yards in 2006 when Portis was hurt).

The receivers in Washington still don’t scare me. Or anyone.

Santana Moss seemed invisible last season. So did Antwaan Randle El. The 1400 yards receiving, 112 catches and 4 TDs they put up combined would have been great if they counted as the same player on my fantasy team last year. Instead it was Russian Roulette playing either of them.

Of course the Skins still have Chris Cooley who is a solid receiving TE and gets all the TDs these days. Plus they drafted Malcolm Kelly (6′4″ 219) and Devin Thomas (6′2″ 218) who are supposed to end up being options 3 and 4 on the depth chart. I hope for the sake of Redskins fans those guys can catch a poorly thrown pass.

The Redskins Defense still seems to be middle of the pack. Nothing seems horribly wrong here, but there is also little to shit your pants in celebration over.

If Jason Campbell does the 1-3 with 4 TDs and 9 INTs thing and gets benched, the Redskins are lucky to finish 7-9.

If Campbell grabs the league by the sack and turns into a monster, they finish 9-7 or 10-6.

If Todd Collins turns into the starter for the whole season, they finish 8-8.

If Colt Brennan becomes the starter midway through the year and plays better than he should be able to as a rookie, they can finish 9-7 or 10-6.

My definitive prediction is a 6-10 record for the Redskins in 2008.

Philidelphia Eagles

As you’ll recall, I like Donovan McNabb.

If he plays 16 games this season, the Eagles could be a force.

If McNabb reclaims the glory of his early years, with additions to the defense, the Eagles could finish as high as 14-2.

They really have an EASY schedule.

If McNabb is in 2002 form, they should probably split with the Cowboys, maybe split with the Giants and maybe lose to the Browns or Steelers. That’s about it.

Worst case scenario, if McNabb is healthy, the Eagles should finish 10-6 no problem.

They have one of the best and most versatile running backs in the NFL in Brian Westbrook. They have Correll Buckhalter who could be a banger to change things up (I have been assured by Palmtross and other Philly fans that Buckhalter is far better than his stats prove).

True, the wide receivers still don’t look great. But last year Kevin Curtis looked like Jerry Rice one week (maybe McNabb can elevate him all year if healthy), Reggie Brown should be all right and LJ Smith is a consistently good receiver.

Plus they have Jason Avant and Hank Baskett, both of whom are young and have been decent 3 and 4 guys.

The Eagles defense is young and fast at linebacker. This is one position it definitely pays to be young and fast at.

The starters on the Eagles defensive line are 50/50 from what I can tell. Mike Patterson had a solid season last year. He’s only 25 and if he continues to grow at DT he should be a treat to watch. Trent Cole who plays Defensive End is a guy who seems to contribute a lot to the defense. He is also only 25.

Of course they added (and severely overpaid for) Asante Samuel to the Defensive Backs where if they have a healthy Brian Dawkins and Sheldon Brown, they can cause some serious trouble.

The only thing is, the fate of this Eagles team is on McNabb. When he was great, he carried them. When he is hurt, they are unpredictable and bizarre.

McNabb NEEDS TO STAY HEALTHY AND BE GREAT or the Eagles will be mediocre due to a lackluster offense (unless you have a great QB, Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, Jason Avant and Hank Baskett might be the worst 4 starting WRs in the NFL…Kevin Curtis is a born #2, Reggie Brown has never carried a big load in his career and is still a little wet behind the ears, Avant and Baskett are unproven in spite of being the right size.)

This season is on McNabb.

My definitive prediction is a 10-6 record for the Eagles in 2008.

New York Giants

Even posting that picture makes my insides churn.

The Giants (like the Patriots) are a very similar team to their 2007 squad. The key difference between the two, in my eyes, is that while the Patriots have tried to upgrade or at the very least added depth and youth to their defense, the Giants have lost Michael Strahan and Jeremy Shockey (granted they didn’t need his injury prone ass to win a Superbowl) and not made any significant additions.

What I think MIGHT happen to them, is that they might be like the Ravens were after they won a Superbowl. They might be too happy to have won. Maybe they’ll be a little tired. Maybe they’ll be sluggish.  Maybe they won’t have the same drive.

Plus they WILL have more people (especially those New York fans) expecting more from them. Maybe that will be tough.

And I’m just gonna say it, Eli Manning is not nearly as good as Donovan McNabb when McNabb is healthy. If McNabb stays healthy all season and the Cowboys stay healthy, I really do think they Giants will finish 3rd in a much much tougher AFC East.

The Giants have a series of decent running backs behind a solid offensive line. But their receiving options? Plaxico Burress is always hurt. He’s great when he plays. He’s easily the second best receiver in the NFC East. But he gets hurt a lot. Then you have Amani Toomer who is on the wrong side of 30 and then Helmet catch guy David Tyree who has clearly ALREADY made the best catch of his career. There is no way in hell that guy can ever outdo that catch.

The defense is similarly strong, but maybe a little less so.

Their success will be dictated by how focused they are. It will also be based upon how good the Eagles and Redskins are. Let’s assume that both the Eagles and Redskins win 1 game agains the Giants. We’ll also assume the Cowboys win 1 against them. That is 3 losses. Not far-fetched at all. They have to play Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Minnesota on the road. Those are 3 games they could easily lose. That brings them down to 10-6. Throw in the fact that the teams they are playing that can beat them at home seem to be the Cowboys, Eagles and Seahawks….that would take them to 7-9. But I doubt they lose 9 games. The defense is too good.

My definitive prediction is a 9-7 record for the Giants in 2008.

Dallas Cowboys

I know that a lot of people expected the Cowboys to win the Superbowl last season.

The Cowboys expected to win it.

They played like chumps when it mattered.

I hate the Cowboys. I always will.

And you know what? They are WEAKER offensively in 2008 than they were in 2007.

WRs, T.O. and Patrick Crayton. Jason Witten at TE. Crayton is a piece of garbage.

RBs, Marion Barber. Yeah, I like the way he runs when he is the running back, but before this year, he has never been a workhorse. Can he withstand starting for 16 games?

I even hate talking about them. I wish them all the worst.

But my definitive prediction is an 11-5 record for the Cowboys in 2008.

Carl Pavano To Start A Game!!!!

York  says:

OMGZZZ

York  says:

CARL PAVANO IS STARTING A GAME!!!!!!!

D. Rinker says:

i know

D. Rinker says:

It’s awesome

York  says:

Oh man…This is like “Chinese Democracy” coming out…

D. Rinker says:

i hope he throws a no hitter

D. Rinker says:

and by that, i mean he strikes out the first batter and then tears his rotator cuff and ends his career

York  says:

right.

York  says:

I assume he will likely surrender 29 runs in 1 inning

York  says:

Before fracturing his Spleen.

D. Rinker says:

he’s actually good when he pitches

York  says:

He’s good when he sits around too

D. Rinker says:

he won a few games last year before the tommy john

York  says:

He’s only had 2 appearances since June 2005

York  says:

Are you sure it was last year…and not 4 years ago?

D. Rinker says:

he was the opening day starter last year

York  says:

That was one of the 2 appearances

D. Rinker says:

yup

York  says:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pavanca01.shtml

York  says:

he was 4-6 in 2005

York  says:

DNP in 2006

York  says:

1-0 in 2007 (2 starts)

York  says:

0-0 in 2008 so far.

York  says:

 $35,562,500

York  says:

is how much money he has made in his career so far.

York  says:

Plus several dates with Alyssa Milano.

D. Rinker says:

he’ll go 3-0 to finish the year

D. Rinker says:

he needs to pitch if he wants a contract next year

D. Rinker says:

he’s going to go from top dollar to league minimum, that sucks

York  says:

Maybe he doesn’t want to pitch anymore…

York  says:

like maybe he has decided he just isn’t cut out for it.

D. Rinker says:

who’s “TOT” in the NL in 2002?

York  says:

That means “total” because he played on 2 teams that year. Combined stats.

D. Rinker says:

duh

D. Rinker says:

i didn’t look DIRECTLY below it

D. Rinker says:

haha

York  says:

You’re so cute.

York  says:

Let’s hug later.

D. Rinker says:

http://www.solshinealternatives.org/about.html

D. Rinker says:

scroll down to the bottom

York  says:

(FYI, this conversation is going on my blog in place of an entry about Carl Pavano…the names will be changed to protect the guilty).

D. Rinker says:

fair enough

York  says:

Can I post that link?

York  says:

haha

York  says:

I like the picture of you in the lower right corner

D. Rinker says:

the tourista hat

D. Rinker says:

its awesome

D. Rinker says:

please do post that link, we need as much coverage for this trip as we can get

York  says:

Will do.

D. Rinker says:

ask people to donate money, even if its only $5

D. Rinker says:

its a tax write off

York  says:

   You just did.

This was an early morning IM converstaion with one of my colleagues. He’s a Yankees fan. Somehow we get along. It’s strange…I have a few good friends who are Yankees fans…Myabe I’m too nice and I’m showing them the sympathy they never showed me throughout my childhood.  Maybe…