New York Jets
You know, looking over the offensive side of the 2008 New York Jets, it seems hard to say they will be bad. Maybe they won’t be great, but their offense seems decent.
The Jets spent some money in the off season improving their offensive line. D’Brichashaw Ferguson (on the shortlist fo best name in the NFL) is young and strong. Alan Faneca has quite a reputation. Damien Woody was a quality O-line guy for the Patriots years ago. Nick Mangold is a tough Center. I don’t see any real holes there.
Obviously Brett Favre was a big addition to a team without a leader.
And to be honest, more than not having a quarterback that has been consistent for the last few years, I truly believe one of the Jets main problems is that they have been a team without a leader.
Maybe Curtis Martin was the leader in years past. But one thing always struck me about Chad Pennington: he didn’t seem like leader material.
I have never been in a huddle with Pennington, but I do think that, for one, when a player is injured frequently, it definitely takes some of the leadership luster off of them for the simple fact that they are not in it in the same way with the rest of the guys. But the thing that stands out to me about Pennington, is that he never seemed like a cowboy.
If there is one trait that all great quarterbacks seem to possess, and this is something that is true across all races, ages and athletic abilities, it is that a great quarterback is a great leader and is John Wayne (from his War movies) mixed with John Wayne (from his Western movies). A great quarterback needs a little arrogance. They need to be unafraid and confident in their team. Joe Namath had it. Joe Montana had it. John Elway had it. Brett Favre has it. Tom Brady has it. Peyton Manning has it. Donovan McNabb had it (when he was younger/before all the injuries).
Chad Pennington? That guy always looked scared to me.
Did John Wayne ever look scared to you?
So Brett Favre is obviously a step up here.
But the thing that MUST carry the Jets are the wide receivers. And to be honest, this is where the holes start to appear.
Jericho Cotchery could be the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL (or in your fantasy league). He’s 6′0″, he’s athletic, he’s young and he has never had a good quarterback throwing to him before, yet has still somehow managed 2,000 yards receiving over the last two seasons. Ignore his bad 8 TDs over the same span. No one was throwing touchdowns in New York. Cotchery should be a great option for the Jets.
Laveranues Coles has had similar output to Cotchery over a longer amount of time. The only concern I have with Coles is that he is a little older (30) and a little undersized (not that this has hurt him in seasons past, but Troy Brown could tell you that when you are an undersized wide-out, the older you get, the harder it becomes to get past the younger defensive backs around you and make up for your lack of stature with your agility and speed. Still, Coles is a good #1 option.
Beyond those two however, the Jets are a little unproven. Who knows, maybe Brad Smith (who is the right size [6'2" 210 lbs] to be a solid wide-out) will blossom this year, but I am not overwhelmed beyond Cotchery and Coles.
Chris Baker and Bubba Franks might provide Favre with the extra targets he’ll need at Tight End.
The biggest issue with the Jets is their running game.
Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Musa Smith, Jesse Chatman. That sounds like a list of undrafted free agents in your Fantasy League that you are forced to choose between around week 6 when two of your good running backs are hurt. You don’t like the way any of them look, but you need to use one of them.
The plus side for the Jets is the fantastic offensive line. Maybe they will platoon the running backs, use all four of them and figure it out as they go. Or maybe Thomas Jones will develop into a legitimate #1 back. We’ll have to see.
The thing is, if the Jets DID have someone like Steven Jackson or Marshawn Lynch or even Edgerrin James in the backfield, they would look like a legitimate Superbowl threat on offense (on paper).
You’ll notice that I spent a lot of time talking about the Jets offense. That is because I don’t have much to say about the defense. On paper, it doesn’t look like a very formidable squad. Not a lot of ultra recognizable names here. Obviously Vernon Gholston will be exciting (seeing how he turns out, anyway), but I don’t think this Jets defense is going to be better than run-of-the-mill. They might surprise and finish as like the 12th best defense. I expect them to be around 18 or so and as a result they will constantly end up putting pressure on the offense to score (which they should not have as much trouble doing).
A great benefit of being bad last season is a quasi-cakewalk schedule in 2008. They only have about 6 tough match ups. If the Bills come out with a vengeance, the Jets might have some trouble though.
And as much as I want to see Brett Favre embarrassed and have his legacy squandered, as much as I hate the Jets…
My definitive prediction is a 10-6 record for the Jets in 2008.
Buffalo Bills
When I look at the Buffalo Bills offense in 2008, it doesn’t look like they have made many upgrades.
They are still a little shaky beyond Lee Evans at Wide Receiver. I am not floored by Roscoe Parrish or Josh Reed. In retrospect, this is a team that probably would have benefitted from signing SOMEONE else at WR in the off season.
Marshawn Lynch was marvelous last year. He made Willis McGahee look like the most replaceable running back ever.
The offensive line is decent.
The biggest question mark is Quarterback. And that is NOT a place to have your biggest question mark.
In theory, the Bills are in a great situation. After all, JP Losman is only one year removed from 3,000 yards and 19 TDs. Losman was everything you could hope for in 2006. Not great. Not really awe inspiring. A game manager. Maybe with some potential for growth.
Then last year happened.
Injuries forced a younger QB (not that Losman is an old man at 27), Trent Edwards to emerge. And Edwards showed flashes of quality for a younger QB. Or at least, he gave the Bills the same results they got from the more experienced Losman and made them question whether they should switch to Edwards to develop him full time or not.
This is kind of a shitty quandaryfor a few reasons. Yes, there are MORE uninspired starting QB struggles in the NFL (Chicago Bears, anyone?), but by yanking both of these guys around, neither of them gets to show what they can do. I mean, guys need a full season to prove themselves. No one can show how talented they are in 8 games when they constantly fear getting yanked after every INT.
But on the same token, I think Losman AND Edwards both have more upside than a few starting quarterbacks in the league.
Either way, a QB rating around 74.0 isn’t going to cut it as a starter. I hope both of them improve this year.
On defense, the Bills improved their D-line by adding Marcus Stroud from Jacksonville. Stroud and Schobel will be a formidable combination for a lot of offensive lines to block. Kyle Williams and Chris Kelsay are both solid and round out the defensive line.
The Bills also added Kawika Mitchell from the Giants. Mitchell actually had a down season last year and if he can somehow regain his 2006 form (104 tackles) he should be a great addition. Paul Posluszny was having an incredible rookie season through 3 games last year (26 tackles, 17 of them solo)…incredible is an understatement actually, the guy was unreal before getting injured for the season. Posluszny could be a defensive emperor for years to come at linebacker. Angelo Crowell is also a hard worker who rounds out the starting linebackers.
The Bills secondary doesn’t look amazing on paper, but few NFL teams do have a great secondary.
On paper the Bills will be amazing at the pass rush. They are not going to be easy for any offensive line to shut down. The issue is, if the secondary is sub-par, when the Bills blitz, if the offense picks it up, there could be a lot of passing touchdowns thrown against them. I don’t think teams without feature running backs stand much of chance of getting beyond 70 yards on the ground against this front 7.
So the biggest question remains…who is going to lead this team? And will Losman OR Edwards do a good job at QB?
So much on offense could go either way…The Bills could be one of those teams that looks great and wins a game 17-3 one week and then loses a game 14-3 the next. I could easily see that happening.
My definitive prediction is an 8-8 record for the Bills in 2008.
Miami Dolphins
It’s hard to say a lot about the Dolphins.
Last year they were painful to watch. 1-15 painful. Nearly 0-16 painful. Nearly.
That won’t happen this year. Bill Parcells has added Jake Long who will surely fill in a huge hole on the offensive line.
Ronnie Brown is expected to be healthy. As is Ricky Williams (though I never count on him for anything). And Ronnie Brown, just so you remember, is probably one of the top 5 running backs in the NFL. Behind Peterson, Tomlinson, maybe Steven Jackson, maybe Larry Johnson (both have fallen from grace). This is a league without a lot of premier running backs and Ronnie Brown over the course of his short career, has proven that he can run and catch and do a lot without a lot blocking (of course this has also led to some injuries…).
At Wide Receiver, the Dolphins made the very very very smart addition of Ernest Wilford. Wilford is huge (6′4″ 223 lbs.) and young and was very effective in Jacksonville (where they constantly used 4 tall WRs interchangeably) and should easily be Chad Pennington’s favorite target in Miami. Ted Ginn Jr. I just don’t get. he might develop into a Laveranues Coles type receiver (Coles may be the #1 on the Jets, but he is no alpha dog among top NFL receivers. he’ll never be in the T.O., Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald group). He’s but I always thought that he was overrated in college and over-drafted by the Dolphins. Maybe he’ll be serviceable. Beyond those two is a lot of young and undeveloped targets.
At quarterback the Dolphins have Chad Pennington.
Here’s the thing about Pennington, he just got cut for Brett Favre. After years of playing hard for the Jets, leading them to the playoffs, and generally being a solid game manager and sometimes all right quarterback. This is his chance to have a chip on his shoulder, go out there and lead the Dolphins to a surprisingly successful campaign.
If Pennington is healthy and plays with a chip on his shoulder, who knows. Maybe he’ll throw 20 TDs and 9 INTs for like 3,000 yards and look great again. If he can play gutsy football on a shaky team, I will take back all of the bad things I have said about him.
Realistically, I see no way this team can possibly finish with a winning record. It just isn’t in the cards. They need another solid wide receiver on offense and some improvements to the defensive line and secondary on defense.
But…
They can be a team that upsets a good team on occasion and wins a couple of monumental games for the franchise. This season should be a turning point for them. If they finish 7-9 it will be an amazing rebound after last year. But you get the sense that even finishing 5-11 would be an accomplishment.
On defense I don’t see too much promise. Joey Porter will probably be healthy. Akin Ayodele was a nice addition to the Linebackers as well. But by and large, this Dolphins defense seems young and unproven in some places and experienced yet underwhelming in others.
This is a rebuilding year. 2009 will also probably be a rebuilding year. But I do expect progress each season. I think they will be very competitive again by 2010 (if all goes according to plan).
The good thing is, when a team hits rock bottom, they get to overhaul and improve from the ground up. Some teams (Detroit Lions) stay decent enough to never get a great draft pick for years but never get good enough to go to the Superbowl. Sorry Dolphins fans, but this is for your own good.
My definitive prediction is a 4-12 record for the Dolphins in 2008.
New England Patriots
You know what really isn’t promising? The way the Patriots have played this preseason.
The most gutsy thing I have seen them do is Matt Gutierrez (3rd string QB) leading them to 2 touchdowns against the Eagles 3rd string defense at the end of the game on Friday night.
And yes, I am a firm believer that preseason means very little when it comes to the actual NFL…but I still think the Patriots need to step up a little bit or they will suffer some rust early in the season (and that will not be good).
The Patriots still have the same starting offensive line that was devoured by the Giants defense in the Superbowl. They added some back ups (added some youth here) but the starting O-line is the same.
At wide-out they lost Donte Stallworth but still have Moss, Welker, Jabar Gaffney and expect the full return (and rebirth) of Chad Jackson (who did look good on Friday). They also have Kelley Washington and Sam Aiken who might catch a pass here and there. That is still a high quality receiving group. Probably one of the best sets in the NFL.
The tight ends are the same (Watson and Thomas).
Something the Patriots have done almost every off season for the last decade or so is add another running back. Usually it is someone who was decent as a backup on another team or a veteran in the twilight of their career. Last season they added Sammy Morris for depth. Unfortunately Morris was injured several games in a missed the rest of the season. This isn’t to say that the Patriots were short-handed at running back (they had Kevin Faulk and Maroney splitting time as well as the occasional Kyle Eckel carry)…the thing is, running backs get hurt. Easily. It happens.
Kevin Faulk is not a workhorse back. He can take a few carries a game and catch passes, but he isn’t a grinding back.
Maroney is a finesse runner. he cuts a lot and when he gets into the open field, he is great, but he also doesn’t exactly bang through guys.
Sammy Morris was great last year because he was powerful and solid in short yardage situations.
Morris is back and the Patriots took it a step further and added Lamont Jordan this season as well. Jordan is a bruiser when he’s healthy. If the Patriots split time between the backs, they should have no problem frustrating defenses and establishing a ground game. If they split time, they will also be able to keep guys fresh and (hopefully) reduce the stress on all of them throughout the regular season so that they are all healthy and energetic for the Playoffs (in a perfect world…in real life, having 3 of them left for the Playoffs would be astounding).
I love the Jordan pick up.
On defense, the Patriots got faster and younger. They added Victor Hobson (who should be great in the mix) and Jerod Mayo and Shawn Crable look like they should be solid additions to the pass rush.
In the secondary the Patriots sort of seemed to embrace that no team has a great secondary, so they added a series of young guys who are capable and hopefully can provide the coverage they were so sorely lacking for a lot of last season. Losing Asante Samuel shouldn’t be a huge issue. Nor should losing Randall Gay. If the pass rush is better, the defensive backs don’t need to be better (it would help, but I think the idea is a great pass rush will offset the loss of having [at best] an average secondary). And as always, I’m inclined to believe that Bill Belichick knows what he’s doing when it comes to coaching a team and developing players.
Still, the preseason does not look promising.
And looking at the schedule, if the rust does carry over, I could easily see a situation where the Patriots are 4-4 through week 9.
I’m going low ball it and assume the worst of this team.
My definitive prediction is an 11-5 record for the Patriots in 2008.
Posted by yorkroberts 
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Posted by yorkroberts 
