Bold Baseball Predictions: Tampa Bay Rays

April 3, 2009

  • Rays will take the AL Wild Card. They will win 96 games.

 

  • Their starting rotation will be the best in baseball in 2009.

 

  • James Shields will be in the running for a Cy Young with a 21-6 record and 217 strikeouts and a 2.82 ERA.

 

  • Evan Longoria will hit 36 home runs and have a .382 OBP. He’ll generally be the man crush of the league.

 

  • Pat Burrell will do less than expected. He’ll be a constant power threat and have 24 home runs but he’ll only bat .241.

 

  • Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and Troy Percival will make up the best 3 pitcher bullpen tandem in baseball.

 

  • The Rays will start the season with good attendance numbers but by late June people in Tampa Bay will already forget about them until the Playoffs.

 

  • Jason Bartlett will continue to be Jason Bartlett.

 

  • Dioner Navarro will try his best to emulate A.J. Pierszynski by pissing off opposing players.

 

  • Matt Joyce and his million dollar smile will bat .284 this year and continue to grow.


Red Sox Get Eliminated.

October 20, 2008

The Red Sox couldn’t put it together offensively on Sunday night and thy have lost another ALCS.

Honestly, it’s been a while since they’ve come so close and went home empty handed. 2003 was the last such time.

But it feels so different now.

After the Pedro Martinez/Grady Little fiasco, I threw a coconut off of a roof.

I don’t know if I can honestly attribute that to anger and disappointment or to the fact that I was in college then.

Either way, it made a big mess.

As funny as it sounds, I’m happy with this loss. I’m not happy it happened, and I wasn’t rooting for the Rays by any means but, you have to at least be happy with the way it happened.

After the humiliation of games 3 and 4, I was angry that the Red Sox didn’t even look like they belonged in the playoffs…

At least they went down swinging.

John Lester pitched a decent game, the bullpen looked fine…Matt Garza (as disgusting as he is to watch due to the horrific spitting) was just great.

Besides, you can’t win the World Series every year. If you did you would be the Yankees.

I’d say they did pretty well for a team I thought had no shot at the playoffs even in mid July.

And hey, whenever things were bad for any team this season, they could at least say to themselves “at least we’re not the Tigers!”.

Plus, I don’t have to look at Craig Sager’s stupid face and ugly suits for at least another year or listen to Buck Martinez not know how to pronounce “Ortiz” or Chip Caray CLEARLY ROOTING AGAINST THE RED SOX. That guy is a gigantic piece of shit.

And even thoguh the Red Sox lost, TBS probably lost more because I don’t know anyone who thinks Frank Calliendo is funny, and actually they play so many of his goddamn commercials I would punch him right in his unfunny mouth if I ever saw him walking down the street and TBS FAILED TO BROADCAST the beginning of game 6.

Listen, CBS having issues in Buffalo yesterday, that sucks for Buffalo fans, sure, but it wasn’t a playoff game.

You explain to me why I had to watch almost an entire episode of the Steve Harvey show TBS? Do you know what it was like being in a bar while that was airing? DO YOU EVEN UNDERSTAND!?!

Nice year Red Sox.

Go spend some pitching money!


Red Sox, Dodgers, Look For Hole To Crawl In And Die.

October 15, 2008

I love Terry Francona…

But he needs to stop issuing lifetime achievement awards in the playoffs.

These playoffs have taught me:

Jason Varitek = sucks.

David Ortiz = giant pile of suck.

Josh Beckett = either hiding an injury or regressed to his 2006 form = sucks.

Tim Wakefield = shaky at best.

Mike Timlin = easily the worst pitcher in baseball. Tee-ball.

What a pile of suck the last few games have been.

But, strangely, you can’t pin the problems to Manny being absent. It isn’t the lack of hitting that has killed them (all though a little MORE hitting couldn’t hurt). The pitching has been atrocious.

And honestly, after the way the Red Sox stormed through the ALDS, it looked like they had momentum and were ready to play.

But losing the extra innings game killed them. A game they never should have lost and the blame rests squarely on the shoulders of Terry Francona. Josh Beckett should never have been int hat game past the third inning. Mike Timlin should never have been added to the Playoff roster.

I realize there are a lot of injuries still nagging this team (Lowell, JD Drew, Ortiz, Beckett). But they somehow found a way to run out of gas and slump right when they needed to go full speed.

It is nothing like the 2005  bouncing they received at the hands of the White Sox.

This is a CIP. 

 Collapse in progress.


Red Sox Take Game 1 Of ALCS

October 11, 2008

In mid-August, I wrote about how Daisuke might have been having one of most inexplicable 14-2 records in baseball. He let a ton of guys on base, had gave up more walks than he did in 2007, had fewer strikeouts and (at that point) had a worse WHIP. But somehow, he had a great record. 

Last night it was very clear why he was successful against the Rays.

Matsuzaka had a no hitter through 6. He only walked 4 and had 9 strikeouts. 

To be honest, I didn’t know that this was the Daisuke we would see in the playoffs. His playoff stats from last season were nothing special (his ERA was over 4). But maybe, he’s adjusted to pitching in America this season. And maybe he’s still that guy who pitched his Japanese team to championships, pitched on 3 days rest nonstop and never wanted to come out of games.

In the eighth, he gave up two hits in a row and Francona made the wise decision of taking him out. Okajima and Masterson looked brilliant in the eighth throwing a combined 9 pitches and getting the outs necessary to bring in Papelbon.

If there was one thing a lot of people were unsure of going into the playoffs, it as the bullpen. And frankly, if the starting pitching is good enough that it doesn’t necessitate using 6 relievers a night, I think the Red Sox will be all right.

Was it a perfect game for the Red Sox? No. They left 18 men on base (the Rays left 17 on base). If they are going to be a Championship caliber team, they need to find some more ways to score runs. 

But a shutout at the metal carpet in game 1 of ALCS?

I’ll take it.


Red Sox Prep For Playoffs. A Reflection On A Long Season.

September 30, 2008

As long as the baseball season is, it always feels short in retrospect.

It seems like just yesterday people thought the Mariners wouldn’t suck. Or that the Tigers were winning a World Series…

What was I doing the whole time?

Working. Cleaning out a new apartment. Moving. Working. That’s about it. Throw in a couple trips to Rhode Island, a few games I attended in April and a few in September and that’s how it passed.

Don’t get me wrong, I was watching. Even when I wasn’t watching I was constantly reminded when the Red Sox were at home by the stupid amount of people crowding all the trains on my way back from work.

And Red Sox fans are not normal commuters. Oh no. They spit in the face of train etiquette.

I remember opening day in Japan like it was yesterday. Some of the bars around town opened at 5 a.m. to serve eggs. Others stayed open from the night before. At lunch that day my co-worker Crowley and I complained about not being near a sausage and peppers cart. What a great day.

One of my favorite things about the baseball season that really is kind of unique to baseball is how much your mind can change throughout the season.

I was down on Manny. I don’t know if it was his fault or Boras’, but clearly Manny was content to play like shit in Boston around the midpoint. The Red Sox gave up way too much to deal him, but got Jason Bay back and since then, I’ve been a lot more content with this team.

My friend Sloan was convinced it was a bad idea to trade Manny at the time and still thinks so:

My problem with the BoSox trading away Manny Ramirez was that he’s a great hitter who can change the course of a playoff series and help a team win a championship. York, a Red Sox fan, was all about dealing Manny for Jason Bay, and obviously some people more powerful than me agreed with him. My main idea was that the Red Sox were as likely as anyone to win the title this year, and that’s not something you pass up lightly. York disagreed.

Disagree. This team isn’t winning Shit Sloan. You know that, or should know that, and I know that. They are HORRIBLE HORRIBLE HORRIBLE HORRIBLE under pressure.

THIS TEAM HAS BEEN SWEPT 6 TIMES SLOAN! 6 TIMES!!!

As much as I’d love to see the Rays beat the Cubs in the series (breaking the Rays’ tragic and historic ten year curse) I still think the BoSox should be feared until they’re beaten. And I still think it’s stupid for the defending World Series champions to deal their best player.

See how I said horrible 4 times there. That’s how you know I was serious.

Today?

If the Red Sox can get by the Angels, I think they have a pretty good shot at getting to the World Series. The Angels have owned them this season. So much hitting,, so much base running, so much pitching…

Obviously the Red Sox have owned the Angels in the playoffs the last few seasons. But that was sort of a different Angels team. I was really sold on this Angels team a few months ago. They probably should have won 110 games in the shitty AL West. But they didn’t.

I’m really not sold on the White Sox. Not without Carlos Quentin. They score a lot, but they also give up a lot.

The Twins might be the surprise of the season. Well aside from the Rays. But can the Twins actually put up the offense they would need to compete with the Rays or Red Sox or Cubs or even White Sox? I don’t think so…

More on tonight’s playoff game later on…

But I like this Red Sox team. I think that if JD Drew is healthy, they are going to be really great offensively. While they are not a team with two legendary post-season power hitters hitting back to back any more, I feel like they have a lot more spark, a lot more fight and a lot more guts than they did before the Manny trade. It seems as clear as day to me as I’m sure it does to anyone else who has watched them evolve since Manny skipped town.

The main thing I was worried about, Manny’s bat aside, was that Ortiz might be depressed or angry at the team and might drop off in an already shaky season.

But to watch this team come together and see Ortiz and Pedroia interact, it is clear that David Ortiz is still happy. He still wants to win. He’s no Mr. October, but in Boston, he’s good as Mr. keeps-coming-back-when-you-thought-they-were-dead.

That alone is enough to scare opposing pitchers.


Thanks For Ruining My Thursday Red Sox.

September 12, 2008

On Wednesday I went to game 3 of the Red Sox hosting the Tampa Bay Rays.

It was that sick 5 hour masterpiece of epic failure, a total inability to score runs and pitching that was either incredibly dominant or hittign that was incredibly flaccid. Somewhere in between most likely.

Jason Bay was 0-7 with 3 strikeouts. He left 7 runners on base.

David Ortiz was 0-4 and left 4 runners on base.

Jacoby Ellsbury was 1-7.

Mark Kotsay was 1-6.

It was truly painful to watch.

Add in the fact that apparently it now starts getting cold as soon as the calendar says “September” and the 1 and a half hour commute I had after the game and you can almost feel how unpleasant the whole experience was.

At least I wasn’t that drunk woman ten rows in front of me. She was probably about 27 or 28 but was with a guy who must have been 45 or so. She kept standing up and facing awayfrom the field and shaking her open hands while yelling “COME ON PEOPLE. GO RED SAAAAUX! GO RED SAAAAAUX!”.

I’m sure my Thursday wasn’t as bad as hers.

The saddest thing about the game was that Terry Francona all but gave up on it. It seemed like the Red Sox had a bunch of bad calls go against them (a questionable fan interference call, a downright terrible call at first base in the 9th, a strike zone that seemed to be wider than an Escalade all night long) and then finally with hardly anyone left in the bullpen and one out in the 14th, Francona brought in Mike Timlin.

Really? Mike Timlin?

Timlin has been consistently inconsistent for the last 3 seasons.

He is essentially a mop up guy. I really don’t think he should make the playoff roster.

Timlin has made 43 appearances this season. He has pitched 44.1 innings and in those 44.1 innings he has magnificently given up 55 hits and 31 runs.

That means Timlin averages .4 hits per out. or 1.2 hits per inning pitched. Horrific. That’s not pitching. That’s teeball.

Timlin also has an amazing 6.09 ERA this season. Far and away the worst ERA he has posted in his 47 seasons in the bigs.

As soon as TImlin was warming up, it was like the Red Sox were waving the white flag. That game could still be going on.

This weekend the Red Sox have the joy of facing the white hot Blue Jays.

A team they always eat shit against.

I’m watching OSU vs. USC.


The Red Sox To Break The Cleveland Indians’ Consecutive Sellout Streak Tonight. Try to Put The Kids To Bed.

September 8, 2008

See what happens when you remove the Devil from your life and follow the path of rugged-domed-senior-citizens-wearing-Haiwaiin-shirt-glory?

The Tampa Bay Rays have looked a lot like the Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays I know and love from seasons past. They just got swept by the Blue Jays. THE BLUE JAYS! Roy Halladay aside (I would give him the Cy Young over Cliff Lee any day of the week) they are not a very good team.

Tonight I get to attend the record setting attendance game. It will be my first trip to Fenway since John Lester’s no-hitter. My 3rd overall game this season. The first game I went to was the Detroit Tigers’ first win of the season (over John Lester). The Second was the no hitter (Lester). So naturally, tonight’s starter will be none other than John Lester.

That always seems to happen. I see the same starter 4 times in one season (it isn’t like I have season tickets or anything). Two years ago I saw Wakefield 4 out of 5 times.

At least this year it’s Lester.

The Red Sox finally have Beckett back in the rotation, Lowell is healthy, Kevin Youkilis is back, JD Drew and David Aardsma are coming back. It looks like things are coming together (at just the right time).

The Rays have started to sink. The Twins and White Sox are killing themselves (thanks for the help Carlos Quentin!) and even the Angels do not look nearly as good as they did 6 weeks ago.

I was low on the Red Sox in June and July and even early August.

But they have hooked me in.

I feel like if they play the way they have the last few weeks, they have some legs. Maybe they can swing the momentum and parlay it into a Divisional Victory and a serious shot at NOT getting bounced immediately in the Playoffs (as I was so sure they would 6 weeks ago).

And I swear that my new found hope for the Red Sox is in no way related to my acceptance of the Patriots impending doom (all though, if Vince Wilfork popped Brett Favre’s ACL to take those ridiculous Jets fans down a notch, I wouldn’t mind…not that Wilfork would do that or anything…just saying…as much as I hate the Steelers and Chargers and Colts and Cowboys, I would not say ‘that’s what you deserve (homophobic slur here)!!!’ if any of their star players went down with a season ending injury).

Also, Dustin Pedroia needs to go 4-4 tonight. Maybe 5-5 or 6-6. Pick it up Dusty.

 


American League MVP 2008. Josh Hamilton? Cliff Lee? Dustin Pedroia? Ian Kinsler? Carlos Quentin? Aubrey Huff? A-Rod?

September 5, 2008

Poor Ian Kinsler.

I really do think Kinsler would have won the MVP had he not been injured.

But shit happens.

And Texas sucks. As a team. As a group of hitters, they are exciting and enchanting gentlemen. As a team? Call me when you get a rotation and/or bullpen.

The thing is, this is one MVP Race that isn’t very cut and dry.

You’ve got ARod who sucked for a while, has been terrible in the clutch (more-so than usual even) and who won it last year with numbers far better than the ones he is currently putting up.

You’ve got Josh Hamilton who was on fire for a while but sort of fell to Earth a little bit.

You’ve got Carlos Quentin who has great power numbers…but that’s about it.

And you’ve got Aubrey Huff who one would never figure to be in the MVP race.

Then there’s Dustin Pedroia.

Before I get into how Pedroia is statistically amazing or how much he has carried the Red Sox since the Manny trade, let me state what the term MVP means to me.

Most Valuable Player means the player who has contributed the most to his team thoughout the season. A player who has been statistically amazing, carried his team through tough times and led them to the promised land.

The Most Valuable Player should never be a guy who is on a non-playoff team unless he is having a record setting season.

For example, if Josh Hamilton had 179 RBI right now with the same batting average and home run stats, I would say he should definitely be in the running. After all, he would have a legitimate shot at Hack Wilson’s record, he would clearly appear to be carrying his team by himself and statistics like that are hard to ignore.

But Hamilton only has 121 RBI right now. That’s not groundbreaking. That’s just a great season. He hasn’t carried the Rangers through their pitching struggles. His offense alone has not compensated for his team’s lack of pitching. The Rangers are nowhere near the playoffs. They might be a fun team to watch, but they aren’t going anywhere and would certainly be worse without Hamilton, but they aren’t necessarily better just for having him (if that makes sense).

I don’t see how you could consider Hamilton.

ARod, same thing. Unless ARod were to lead the Yankees back from the dead to a divisional championship or Wild Card playoff spot, against all odds. In which case I would say, yes, he is very very valuable.

Aubrey Huff is on the Orioles who apparently the Playoffs have filed a restraining order against, because it seems like the O’s are not allowed within 500 feet of the Playoffs.

That leaves Carlos Quentin. He might help carry the White Sox to a division championship. But let’s look at his stats:

Quentin has 138 hits. 96 Runs, 26 Doubles, 36 Home Runs, 100 RBI, 7 Steals and 80 Strikeouts. He is batting .287. .394 On Base Percentage. 274 Total Bases.

Certainly Quentin’s 36 Home Runs and 100 RBI are impressive. But I don’t think a guy should ever win MVP if he has a sub-.300 batting average. I’m sure Quentin will pick it up in September (the White Sox will need him to).

But Pedroia?

Dustin Pedroia has 191 hits (MLB Leader), 110 Runs (MLB Leader), 44 Doubles (Tied for 2nd), 17 Home Runs, 76 RBI, 17 Steals and only 47 Strikeouts. He is batting .333 (leads the AL), .378 On base Percentage. 290 Total Bases.

The hits and runs are absurd. Obviously Pedroia’s home run and RBI totals do not appear to be MVP worthy, but when you look deeper at his other stats, it is abundantly clear that his offensive output has been ridiculous.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Pedroia was batting 2nd most of the season and did not have nearly as many RBI opportunities as say Josh Hamilton or Carols Quentin have had. I think Pedroia could still finish with 100 RBI and 20+ Home Runs. But I do feel like those are thresholds he might need to cross in order to win over some voters.

Pedroia has been a monster for the Red Sox since Manny was traded. He has found a way to get them runs without Mike Lowell, without Kevin Youkilis and without a healthy rotation. This Red Sox team has been eviscerated by injuries all season and I doubted their toughness and grit before and after the All Star break.

But something changed after Manny was traded.

The Red Sox seemed to get more injured and when most teams would have folded after losing an icon, this Red Sox team buckled down and played hard.

This is why I was so happy to get Jason Bay. Why Mark Kotsay was a great pick up. Why Jed Lowrie will be the starting shortstop for the Red Sox next season and why Jacoby Ellsbury is not done yet (don’t give up on him).

And to be honest, I really do feel like it all goes back to 5′ 6″ Dustin Pedroia (there is no way in hell he is 5′ 9″).

I say this not just as a Red Sox fan.

I really do think if Pedroia continues to rip the leather off the ball the way he has the last several weeks, there is no one in the AL more valuable to their team than Pedroia.

When you factor in his defense versus ARod or his versus Quentin or Hamilton, it seems like it would be hard to not give him the MVP.

And when you look at Josh Hamilton or Milton Bradley or Ian Kinsler, you have to wonder how anyone could vote for any of the three of them over any of the others. They would probably split votes (Ross Perot Effect).

It is also worth mentioning, that if a team has 3 guys who are putting up offensive numbers that look to be of MVP caliber, how could that team be sub .500? Oh, right, because they have committed over 100 errors (that’s an average of more than 10 a starter people!) and can’t pitch worth a damn. 

Not all that valuable.

Let’s see if Pedroia has enough gas left to take advantage of a vulnerable inexperienced Rays team and lead the Sox to a division title.

If he can, I see no way he could lose.


Jason Varitek. The Lost Season.

August 14, 2008

I haven’t heard Jason Varitek get booed at Fenway this season yet. Maybe it has happened and I just missed it. I haven’t heard it yet though.

The thing is, Varitek has been sort of…horrible…in 2008.

For all the Red Sox fans detest Julio Lugo (and they DO), if I had to pick the weakest link on offense for the Red Sox this season, it would hands down be Jason Varitek.

Julio Lugo had actually greatly improved from 2007 (before his injury) and raised his batting average to .268 (not great but respectable) and his On Base Percentage to .355 (same, quasi respectable).

Jason Varitek is batting .214 (I believe this was the same battign Average Richie Sexson had when the M’s cut him loose) with an On Base Percentage of .304.

Before you get mad at me for pointing out the obvious or hating on a Boston Sports Deity, please understand that I hate when Red Sox fans complain about everyone on the team not batting .300 with 30 Home Runs and 100 RBI as much as the next guy.

I get that in baseball, everyone on a team cannot be a hybrid combination of Pete Rose and Babe Ruth. Believe me, I understand (if you listen to sports talk radio around here it is quite clear that a lot of Red Sox fans don’t).

But…

What I expect from Tek, at a minimum, is a .245 batting average and a .325 On Base Percentage.

Those are NOT lofty expectations.

Jason Varitek is a career .263 hitter. His Career On Base Percentage average is .346.

I don’t expect Varitek to be a power source or to hit 30 doubles a season or to have 90 RBIs a year or anything. I just want him to get on base enough to contribute to the offense.

In 99 games Varitek has scored 25 runs this season. He only has 69 hits. 32 RBI.

His career averages here?: 70 runs, 105 hits. 65 RBI.

The guy just isn’t carrying his weight offensively.

And he’s in a contract year.

For the first part of the season I just assumed it was a slow start. He would pick it up eventually. Then I thought maybe he really was just aging. His Numbers have dipped a little the last couple of years.

Today I read that he just filed for divorce.

I guess that could explain some of it.

I just hope that he either retires from playing after this season and stays with the Red Sox as a coach or that he re-signs with the Red Sox at severely reduced pay. Tek has made $46 million in his career with the Sox. And is getting paid a career high $11 million this season.

And I know, he is a leader and he brings a lot of intangibles to the clubhouse.

It just seems like a lost season when I have to hope that Francona will pinch hit for the Captain during a playoff hunt.


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